“… one of the most predictive variables for a place becoming more Republican has been the number of people ethnically identifying as ‘American’…”

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Something real has been percolating over the past decade in the Republican base when it comes to race and identity. When looking at the change in the county-by-county vote from 2000 to 2012, one of the most predictive variables for a place becoming more Republican has been the number of people ethnically identifying as “American,” not whether or not a person believes in smaller government or lower taxes. States such as Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia, where a plurality of people identified in the 2000 Census as “American,” are among those that have trended the most Republican since 2000.

Clare Malone, “The End Of A Republican Party”, FiveThirtyEight (18 July 2016) [http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-end-of-a-republican-party]

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